Ray Mossholder: SPECIAL REPORT FROM RAY: THE ELECTION 2016 August 23, 2014

Have you ever been to a horserace? If you have, you know what it’s like. When the horses break from the gate it means very little compared to the final gallops to the finish line. The announcer says something like: “They’re off and running. Glue–factory is in the lead, followed by Hasn’t Got A Chance, The Old Gray Mare and Beetlebomb. They are rounding the clubhouse turn and Broken Leg has gone to the front, followed by Why Did I Bet on You and Loser. That’s just about where the presidential possibles for the 2016 presidential race is right now – rounding the clubhouse turn. Often in a horserace, the horses I just mentioned are in the back of the pack when the race is over. Often too, the horse who eventually wins keeps a low profile and moves up very slowly to the winners circle.

SPECIAL REPORT FROM RAY: THE 2016 ELECTION

A free service of Jesus Christ is Lord Ministries

Report written by John Zogby

and delivered by Ray Mossholder

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Hello America. Hello world.

From the headquarters of reachmorenow.com in Fort Worth, Texas, this is Ray Mossholder and this is a special report: The 2016 election.

I am only going to do this once this year because it’s far too early to make any definite predictions of who will be the front runners in the 2016 presidential election. None of the candidates listed in this report have yet declared that they will be running for president. However, all of them have said enough to make me think they no doubt will.

Two things cause me to do this report. First, it will give you a ringside seat on being sure you know all of the possibilities and where they stand in the polls more than two years away from that election. Second, is my deep respect for John Zogby and the amazing work he does in collecting all this data. Of course, I’ll keep you posted on all the possible presidential candidates for 2016 individually, especially once they do declare that they are running.

The most respected national polls of all today are the Zogby poll and the Gallup poll. Doing polls on political candidates and obvious political issues, Zogby and Gallup make phone calls all over the United States to people who will affect the future of America – the American voter.

On nonpolitical issues, they broaden the field to include all American adult citizens. Fox News is new to this kind of thing, but because they use a totally independent outside source to do their polls and allow no conservative bias, they are becoming more and more respected too.

Zogby has just completed a report and analysis on how the probable presidential candidates are doing at this exact moment in history. By hearing this, you will be able to sort out the national opinion, I stress, AT THIS MOMENT.

That’s just about where the presidential possibles for the 2016 presidential race is right now – rounding the clubhouse turn. Often in a horserace, the horses I just mentioned are in the back of the pack when the race is over. Often too, the horse who eventually wins keeps a low profile and moves up very slowly to the winners circle.

Far more people lose their money at a horserace than ever take money home. And right now I wouldn’t put my money on any presidential candidate. That’s because sometimes horses fall badly during a race and so do candidates. So what I am giving you in this report is the probable major candidates who are rounding the clubhouse turn. Here are the results from the Zogby poll and his analysis and he egregious egregious. Zogby begins:

John Zogby

I am sorry to have to tell you this: sometimes the pundits have no idea what they are talking about.

If you watch the talking heads (I try not to) and read the blogs (I read some), you would think that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has mortally wounded her chances of ever becoming President. Her book tour is just short of disastrous; her interviews have revealed a woman who is clearly out of touch with the reality of the 99%; and she has committed the most egregious act a party nominee can do by criticizing a sitting President from her own party. I truly get the scenario.

The only problem is that none of this is true. Our new Zogby Analytics poll shows Mrs. Clinton comfortably leading all the Republican big names we submitted for testing. The new poll, conducted online August 13-15 among 1,223 likely voters nationwide, shows Mrs. Clinton shooting each GOP duck in a row.

She beats former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49% to 36%

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 50% to 34%

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie 47% to 35%

Former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 GOP standard-bearer Mitt Romney 50% to 35%

Former Arkansas Governor and Fox News host Mike Huckabee 49% to 33%

Florida Senator Marco Rubio 51% to 29%.

As we can see, Hillary hovers around the 50% mark against each challenger while none of her putative opponents receives 40%.

Aside from holding solidly on to the Democratic base of young voters, Hispanics, African Americans, and Creative Class voters, what is most striking is how much better she does among Democrats than her opponents do among Republicans. In every test case, Mrs. Clinton polls anywhere from 81% to 88% of her fellow Democrats, while no GOP candidate (including Romney or Paul) achieves more than 77% of Republican support.

Of even greater significance is that Mrs. Clinton receives at least 80% of liberal support while no Republican gets higher than 69% of conservative support. At the same time, Mrs. Clinton is within two points in either direction among white voters, a formula for GOP disaster if that continues among this shrinking demographic within the electorate. And, for icing on the cake, she outpolls even Mr. Rubio 61% to 24% among Hispanics.

Hillary with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez

Meanwhile, Ms. Warren runs about even with all of the GOP candidates: 34% to 36% against Bush; 34% to 35% against Paul; 34% to 37% vs. Christie; 36% to 38% against Romney: 35% to 33% vs. Huckabee; and 35% to 31% against Rubio.

While about a third of the voters are undecided, it is important that none of the GOP contenders is able to pick up ground against the lesser known and more ideological Warren.

Elizabeth Warren

The summer has been good to pundits but it has been even better to Mrs. Clinton. Right now there appears to be no chink in her armor but there are some things to remember. The first is that for now she is running against herself and high expectations. In a potentially crowded field, it will be hard to match this 50% plus showing. Any sign of falling short may be treated as failure.

Second, is the very real possibility of “Clinton Fatigue”. For now, both she and the former President are riding high in public sentiment. President Clinton’s eight years are recalled with fondness for peace and prosperity. But they more they are in the public eye, the greater the possibility for mistakes or overreach. She will have to continue to walk a very fine line for a long time. Even Clintons can make mistakes.

Third is the possibility of another challenger – notably popular U.S. Senator from Virginia Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

Virginia Senators Mark Warner (L) and Tim Kaine

Or even California Governor Jerry Brown, who is basking in his own wave of glory for performing some fiscal miracles in the Golden State.

But polls measure a moment in time and at this moment it is all about Hillary.

It turns out that there are some good reasons why the former Governor and GOP Presidential nominee is allowing his name to be circulated as a potential candidate in 2016. Some of those good reasons can be found in a new poll by Zogby Analytics showing him outpolling his nearest rivals for the nomination by about two to one. The poll of 315 likely Republican primary voters was conducted online on August 13-15 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Romney places first in the 2016 race for the nomination with 20%.

Romney is followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie 12%.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 11%.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz 9%.

Former Arkansas Governor and Fox News host Mike Huckabee 8%.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 6%.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker 4%.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio 4%.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindahl 3%.

New Mexico Governor Suzanna Martinez 1%.

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley 1%.

Ohio Governor John Kasich .3%.

Ohio Senator Rob Portman at 0.

Three percent selected the “Other Candidate” category and 17% were not sure.

Romney has strong support across the board, leading all candidates among men (21%) and women (20%), moderates (27%) and conservatives (19%), and among Born Again/Evangelical Christians (23%).

Christie’s best showing is among the nearly one in four voters who describe themselves as moderates (21%).

Rand Paul’s support is about 10%-12% across the board.

Romney’s showing is no doubt due a lot to name recognition – after all he has been out campaigning for two full cycles already. But it also shows that he has not really hurt himself among the GOP base. In fact, in a field where no new candidate has distinguished himself or herself as dominant, Romney can certainly be a player. He campaigned and performed respectably in 2012 and has maintained a restrained dignity over the past few months. He also has an “I Told You So” factor that helps him among Republican voters on Iraq, immigration, and on the budget. While President Obama’s job performance numbers have dragged, Romney has been critical but not overbearing and, perhaps above all, he has remained out of the dysfunctional Washington DC-Beltway loop.

What is most impressive to me is the 23% support he receives from self-described Born Again voters. His closest rival among this group is Mike Huckabee with 14%. This was the group that was most troubled by Romney’s leadership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and his strong showing in this poll not only shows a lead, but how other candidates are splitting the remainder. They alone represent almost half of GOP primary voters and their support is vital.

What would Romney need? Again, as he did in 2012, a very strong showing in Iowa. This poll suggests he can do it again if he retains strong support among Born Agains. Then a win in New Hampshire, which he did before and where he still maintains a residence.

For all the thunder on the Right, Republicans normally end up nominating a moderate candidate. (The only exception was Ronald Reagan in 1980, but he faced a number of more moderate candidates who split the vote). They also end up nominating the “Gold Watch” candidate – the one who has been out there the longest. The only exception to that was George W. Bush in 2000, but he was the scion of a family who had many years of solid GOP credentials.