Update on the Massacre in Paris - Saturday, November 15, 2015

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Massacre in Paris – Saturday, November 15, 2015

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of “Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden — From 9/11 to Abbottabad.” Courtney Schuster is a program associate at New America, where David Sterman is a senior program associate.

French jets struck the heart of ISIS-controlled territory on Sunday in the first direct retaliation for Friday’s deadly terror attacks that killed 129 in Paris.

French fighter jets dropped 20 bombs on a command and control center, jihadi recruitment center, munitions depot and ISIS training camp in the Syrian city of Raqqa, AP and Reuters reported, citing a statement from the French Defense Ministry.

The “massive” raid was launched from the United Arab Emirates and Jordan and was carried out in coordination with U.S. forces.

Raqqa is the de facto capital of the Islamic State’s “caliphate.”

The French strikes come the same day the U.S. delivered an ammunition shipment by land to Syrian-Arab coalition forces in Syria, an American official told Reuters.

 The U.S. has conducted the vast majority of coalition attacks on ISIS territory up to this point, and has been almost solely responsible for all coalition bombings of ISIS inside Syria.

The personal nature of Friday’s attacks, which devastated France and shocked the world, changed the calculus. The official casualty toll stood at 129 dead and 352 wounded after the heinous, coordinated attacks at various public locations in and around Paris.

French President Francois Hollande called Friday’s Islamist spree an “act of war” during a nationally televised address. Hollande vowed France “will be merciless toward the barbarians of Islamic State group.”

The first opportunity for payback came Sunday in an effort that included 12 aircraft, 10 of which were French fighter jets.

ISIS, in an online statement, described Paris as “the carrier of the banner of the Cross in Europe” and described the attackers as “eight brothers wrapped in explosive belts and armed with machine rifles.”

On Thursday (a Friday night there), France had its 9/11. And Europe’s worst security nightmare appears to be coming true: At least one of the terrorists who attacked civilians in Paris on Friday entered the European Union hidden among the wave of refugees arriving on European shores.

Investigations into the series of terrorist attacks that killed more than 129 people in Paris are moving forward, with people taken into custody and one of the gun-wielding suicide bombers identified.

French President Francois Hollande has blamed the Islamic extremist group ISIS for the wave of violence Friday that put parts of Paris under siege. He called the coordinated attacks on restaurants, bars, a concert hall and a sports stadium “an act of war.”

ISIS claimed responsibility for the massacres in a statement that said eight of its militants wearing explosive belts and armed with machine guns attacked selected targets across the city.

It was the deadliest terrorist attack in Europe since the Madrid train bombings of 2004, in which 191 people died.

Here is what we know so far:

What happened?

— Three teams of terrorists staged coordinated attacks at six locations throughout Paris late Friday, including a concert hall, the Stade de France and at least two restaurants, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said Saturday.

— Molins said Saturday that at least 129 people were killed and 352 wounded in the attacks. Ninety-nine of the wounded are reported to be in a very serious condition, he said.

— Molins said seven terrorists were killed, one fewer than the number ISIS claimed were involved.

— A black Seat car believed to have been used by gunmen in the restaurant attacks has been found in the eastern Paris suburb of Montreuil, a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutor’s office said Sunday.

— The discovery raises the possibility that at least one attacker drove the car to the Montreuil and remains at large. Police say they are searching for any possible attackers or accomplices.

— “The threat is still going on. The risk is still very high, and nothing says this terror sequence is over yet,” Paris Deputy Mayor Paul Klugman said.

Where were the attacks?

Bataclan concert hall

— This was the deadliest site, with at least 89 people killed, Molins said.

 –Three attackers with assault rifles arrived in a car, entered the concert venue and opened fire. They took audience members hostage and regrouped them in front of the stage, which is why most of the victims were found there, Molins said. The attackers talked about Syria and Iraq during a brief address.

— Police stormed the theater in a rescue operation. The three attackers were killed: two by detonating suicide belts and one by police gunfire and his suicide belt.

— Eagles of Death Metal, a blues rock band from Palm Desert, California, had been performing.

— A witness told Radio France that the attackers entered firing pump rifles and shouting “Allah akbar.”

Stade de France

— Four people were killed outside the sports stadium in Saint-Denis, a suburb north of Paris: three suicide bombers and a man who had been walking by, Molins said.

— France was playing Germany in a soccer match at the time.

— A witness, Gabriel Haddad, said two explosions could be heard in the background during the game. Molins said three explosions occurred over 32 minutes outside the stadium: two immediately outside the stadium and one 400 meters away.

— President Hollande was at the stadium and among those who were evacuated following the attacks.

Restaurants, cafes, bars

— Fifteen people were killed as attackers opened fire at the intersection of rue Alibert and rue Bichat, in the 10th district of Paris near the Canal Saint Martin. Many of the victims were gathered at Le Petit Cambodge, a restaurant, and Le Carillon, a bar, that are situated on either side of rue Bichat.

— About seven minutes later, five people were killed in another shooting outside Cafe Bonne Biere on the corner of rue de la Fontaine au Roi and rue Faubourg du Temple in the 11th district of Paris.

— Around four minutes after that, attackers opened fire with assault weapons on the restaurant La Belle Equipe on rue de Charonne, also in the 11th district. Nineteen people were killed in that shooting.

— After four minutes more, a suicide bomber blew himself up at the cafe Comptoir Voltaire on boulevard Voltaire. Other than the attacker, nobody else was killed, but one person was critically wounded.

— The four attacks in the space of about 15 minutes are believed to have been the work of one team of assailants. The car they used was the black Seat that was later found in Montreuil.

 — Hollande has declared a state of emergency across France, which lets authorities limit people’s movements and impose zones of security and protection.

— The French government says its has also tightened border controls to prevent potential attackers from entering and to capture anyone involved in the attacks.

— French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve the gendarmerie paramilitary police are on heightened alert and security forces have been increased across France.

— Hollande ordered 1,500 military troops to join the security forces currently deployed. The troops will secure locations that are “particularly strategic” and will patrol in the heart of Paris, Cazeneuve said.

–Many shops, public buildings and tourist attractions, including the Eiffel Tower, were closed in Paris on Saturday.

— Despite the security measures and concerns about possible attackers still at large, many Parisians still ventured out into the streets Saturday, some venting their anger at the attackers and mourning the victims.

— Valentin Ribet, a Parisian lawyer and graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science, has been identified as one of the victims of the attacks.

— A 23-year-old student from California State University, Long Beach, was also killed in the attacks. Nohemi Gonzalez from El Monte, California, was a junior studying design, according to a statement from Cal State Long Beach.

— At least two Americans are among the injured, a number that is expected to rise, according to two U.S. officials who spoke to CNN.

 — At least two Belgians have been identified among the dead. Belgian Foreign Ministry spokesman Didier Vanderhasselt said the number could rise.

— The British Foreign Office said a British citizen, Nick Alexander, was killed at the Bataclan concert venue.

— Three Chilean citizens died in the Paris attacks, including two relatives of Chilean Ambassador to Mexico Ricardo Nunez, according to the Chilean Foreign Ministry. The victims were identified as Patricia San Martin and her daughter, Elsa Veronique Delplace San Martin, Nunez’s niece and grandniece; and Luis Felipe Zschoche Valle, a musician who had lived in Paris for eight years, the foreign ministry said.

The investigation

— One of the suicide bombers has been identified as Ismael Omar Mostefai, said Jean-Pierre Gorges, a French lawmaker who is also the mayor of the town of Chartres. Mostefai lived in Chartres at least until 2012, Gorges said via Facebook.

— Six people, all relatives of Mostefai, have been detained, the Paris prosecutor’s office said Sunday. It is common practice in criminal cases in France to place family members in custody. Mostefai’s relatives have been neither charged nor arrested.

— A man who rented a Volkswagen Polo that was left outside the Bataclan was intercepted Saturday at the Belgian border, French authorities said. He is a French citizen living in Belgium and was accompanied by two other people, Molins said. When stopped, he was not driving a car used in the attacks.

 — In Belgium, police arrested a number of people in raids Saturday in a Brussels suburb, Justice Ministry spokeswoman Sieghild Lacoere said. A car rented in Brussels was found near one of the sites of the Paris attacks, which prompted the raids, Lacoere said.

— A source close to the investigation told CNN that officials found passports on two of the eight attackers. One of the passports was of a 25-year-old Syrian man, the other of an Egyptian. The source said there is “a strong assumption” that the passports are fake.

–The Syrian passport belonged to a person who had been processed on the Greek island of Leros, Greek Deputy Minister of Citizen Protection Nikos Toskas said in a statement Saturday. But ministry officials said they are not sure whether the holder of the passport was the person who carried out the attacks. CNN also cannot independently verify that the passport found was authentic or that it belonged to one of the attackers.

 — A U.S. government official said that at the moment, there is no credible or specific threat to the United States.

— Pope Francis condemned the killings, saying they were a part of the “piecemeal Third World War.” “There is no religious or human justification for it,” he said in a telephone interview with TV2000, the television network of the Italian Bishops’ Conference.

 — British Prime Minister David Cameron convened a meeting of the emergency response committee. The threat level in the United Kingdom is at “severe,” meaning a militant attack is considered highly likely.

— Russian leader Vladimir Putin sent condolences to Hollande and the people of France.

— The Netherlands is increasing border security, especially on roads to and from France, according to a spokesman for the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice. Jean Fransman said extra personnel have been deployed and security at airports has been reinforced.

— Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel “stands shoulder to shoulder to France in this common battle against radical Islamic terrorism.” He has offered his nation’s security and intelligence forces to France and other European nations, should they need assistance.

— Monuments around the world were lit up in blue, white and red in solidarity with Paris. In London, the monuments included the London Eye, Tower Bridge and Wembley Stadium. The French flag, lowered to half-staff, is flying at Cameron’s Downing Street office alongside the Union Flag, the office said.

President Barack Obama vowed Sunday to renew U.S. efforts against ISIS, saying “the skies have been darkened” in the aftermath of a terrorist killing spree in Paris,

Speaking at the start of the G20 here on the Turkish Riviera, Obama said the two-day summit has assumed new importance as leaders work to develop a response to the massacre.

At least 129 people were killed at multiple locations in Paris, including a concert hall, a soccer stadium and a popular restaurant, the kinds of venues that ordinary Parisians flock to on a Friday night.

At, or near, these venues the attackers deployed a mix of terrorist tactics, including suicide attackers, an assault using more than one gunman willing to fight to the death, hostage-taking and bombings.

In the years after 9/11, we have seen various forms of this terrible news story play out: the multiple bombs on trains in Madrid that killed 191 in 2004, the four suicide bombings in London that killed 52 commuters in 2005, and the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, India, by 10 gunmen who killed 166.

The attackers in Paris seemed to have learned lessons from all these attacks. (By the way, this is also the case of U.S. school shootings in which the perpetrators study the tactics of those who have gone before them.)

 French President Francois Hollande blames ISIS for the attack, and the terror group has claimed responsibility, but so far it’s not clear where all of the attackers were from. According to French prosecutors, one of the attackers who has been identified is a French national known to police, and a Syrian passport was found on one of the bodies of the other attackers.

Until now, French citizen Mehdi Nemmouche is the only case of a Western fighter in Syria accused of returning to conduct a deadly terror attack — the May 24, 2014, shooting at the Jewish Museum in Brussels, Belgium, that left four people dead. Nemmouche had served time in a French prison, and he had an assault rifle when he was arrested in France. A French journalist held by ISIS reportedlyhas identified Nemmouche as one of the group’s alleged torturers. Nemmouche has been extradited to Belgium, where he awaits trial.

Returning militants from Syria are a worrying potential source of terror attacks. And two major factors place Europe at far greater risk of “returnee” violence from veterans of the Syrian conflict than is the case in the United States: the much larger number of European militants who have gone to fight in Syria and the existence of more developed jihadist networks in Europe.

France has supplied more fighters to the Syrian conflict than any other Western country. In September, Prime Minister Manuel Valls told Parliament that 1,800 French citizens have been involved in jihadist networks worldwide — almost all of whom were drawn to the Syrian war. Nine months earlier, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve estimated that 185 militants had returned to France from Syria. Of those who had returned, he said 82 were in jail and 36 were under other forms of judicial control.

 German security services report that 720 Germans have left for Syria, and they estimate that 100 have been killed there, while another 180 have returned to Germany.

Last year, the Belgian Foreign Ministry released figures that up to 350 Belgians had left to fight in Syria.

Upward of 700 British citizens have left for Syria, with about half estimated to have returned to the United Kingdom, according to British officials.

In January, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop placed the number of Australians fighting abroad at 180, with 20 having died in Syria.

So who exactly are the estimated 4,500 Westerners who have been drawn to join ISIS and other militant groups in Syria?

To provide some answers to that question, New America collected information about 466 individuals from 25 Western countries who have been reported by credible news sources as having left their home countries to join ISIS or other Sunni jihadist groups in Syria or Iraq.

The Western fighters drawn to Syria and Iraq represent a new demographic profile, quite different than that of other Western militants who fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s or Bosnia in the 1990s.

First, women are represented in unprecedented numbers. One in seven of the militants in New America’s data set are women. Women were rarely, if at all, represented in previous jihadist conflicts.

While Western women are not going to fight in the war in Syria, they are playing supporting roles, often marrying front-line fighters and sometimes working as police officers.

They are women like Sally Jones, 44, from the United Kingdom, who took her 10-year-old son to Syria in 2013, and Emilie Konig, 31, one of the first women to leave for Syria, who left France and her two children behind in 2012 to join her husband there. The U.S. State Department says both women have encouraged terrorist attacks in their native countries, and it officially designated both of them as terrorists in September.

Second, the recruits are young. The average age of Western volunteers drawn to the Syrian jihad is 24. For female recruits, the average age is 21. Almost a fifth are teenagers, more than a third of whom are female.

New America has documented an astonishing 80 cases of Western teenagers who have traveled to the war in Syria. More than a third of these teenagers are girls. Hans-Georg Maassen, the head of Germany’s domestic security agency, said, for instance, in March that nine female German teens had left for Syria.

That same month, ISIS released a video of a French boy shooting a Palestinian hostage in the forehead.

Increased security following Paris attacks.

Police stand guard at a train station in Paris on November 14.

Third, many have familial ties to jihadism. More than a quarter of Western fighters have a familial connection to jihad, whether through relatives who are also fighting in Syria and Iraq, through marriage or through some link to other jihads or terrorist attacks.

For instance the father of British ISIS recruit Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary is Adel Abdel Bary, who wasconvicted in New York for his role in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania.

Of those with a familial link, one third are through marriage, many of them marriages between female recruits and male fighters conducted after they arrive in Syria

Three-fifths of Western fighters with familial ties to jihad have a relative who has also left for Syria. For example, the Deghayes family in the United Kingdom had three sons, ages 16 to 20, leave to join al Nusra Front in Syria together.

Fourth, the Americans drawn to the Syrian jihad — 250 who have tried or have succeeded in getting to Syria — share the same profile as the Western fighters overall: Women are well-represented, and the volunteers are young, and many have family ties to jihad. One in six of the Americans drawn to the Syrian conflict are women. The average age of the American militants is 25, with a fifth still in their teens. Almost a fifth of the American militants have a familial connection to jihad.

The American recruits are, perhaps unsurprisingly, particularly active online: Around nine out of 10 American militants are active in online jihadist circles.

Fifth, for Western militants, the wars engulfing Syria and Iraq have often proved deadly. Almost half of the male fighters and 6% of the female recruits have been killed in Syria or Iraq.

Sixth, few of the Western fighters who have traveled to Syria and Iraq are in government custody. Only one-fifth of Western fighters in New America’s data set are in custody, and more than two-fifths of individuals are still at large. (As indicated above, around half the Western militants were killed in the conflicts in Syria or Iraq.)

Seventh, the most popular route to Syria is through Turkey. Almost half of the Western foreign fighters made their way to Syria or Iraq via Turkey. Only one of the militants is documented as attempting to use an alternative route via Lebanon. For the rest of the Western militants, it’s not clear from the public record how they arrived in Syria.

Eighth, where an affiliation can be determined, the majority of the Western fighters have joined ISIS: Three-fifths have joined ISIS, while only a tenth have joined al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, known as al Nusra Front, and one-seventh have joined other smaller militant groups.

Who is inspiring these militants to give up their often-comfortable lives in the West for the rigors of the war zone in Syria? Based on court records and press reports, New America has identified several Western militants acting as online recruiters. Among them are a number of Americans, for instance:

• Abdi Nur, a 20-year-old from Minnesota, allegedly took on the role of online recruiter after leaving for Syria in the summer of 2014. A complaint filed in November that charged six Minnesota men with trying to go to join ISIS accuses Nur of acting as an online recruiter and providing encouragement and advice to the men via Kik and other social media platforms from Syria.

• Hoda Muthana, a 20-year old American woman from Alabama, was identified by BuzzFeed as the individual behind the Twitter account Umm Jihad, which encouraged militants to leave for Syria.

ISIS has disseminated two online guidebooks to encourage its Western recruits. In 2015, ISIS published its how-to guides Hijrah and “How to Survive in the West.” Hijrah provided potential fighters with detailed packing lists — advice on how to get to Turkey and dupe customs officials into issuing visas for the country; Twitter accounts of fighters living in Syria who can facilitate their travel; and even suggestions for recruits to assess their personality strengths and weaknesses before leaving home to prepare themselves better for jihad.

“How to Survive in the West” is a guide on how to “be a secret agent” in a Western country, giving readers tips on the making of Molotov cocktails, bombs and cell phone detonators; hiding weapons in secret compartments of vehicles, in the same fashion as gangs; and how to identify and evade police surveillance, even suggesting that readers watch the Jason Bourne film series for tips on employing evasion tactics.

In September 2014, an ISIS spokesman called for violence, specifically in France, Australia and Canada, releasing an audiotape saying, “If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way, however it may be.”

 What motivates many of these Western fighters to travel to a dangerous war zone with which most have no prior connection? A review of both ISIS propaganda and reporting on the individual cases in New America’s data set suggests the answer is a mishmash of motivations that ISIS has picked up on as part of its recruiting strategy, including opposition to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, religious invocations of the spiritual benefit of participating in jihad, the belief that religious duty requires living under ISIS’ so-called caliphate, anger and alienation from Western society, and for some the “cool” factor of participating in a war.

Here are the rationales for joining ISIS that are provided by a couple of ISIS’ alleged American recruits:

• Abdi Nur, the 20-year-old Minnesotan, tweeted: “Jihad Is The Greatest Honor For Man So Come On And Join Dawla Ya Iqwa (you brothers of the Islamic State]).” Nur later explained to his sister: “if I didn’t care I wouldn’t have left but I want jannah (paradise) for all of us.

• Authorities say Chicago teen Hamzah Khan left a letter for his parents before attempting to travel to Syria in 2014, explaining that “there is an obligation to ‘migrate’ to the ‘Islamic State.” He was charged with material support of ISIS and has pleaded not guilty.

Threat to United States

Four years into the Syrian civil war, little evidence has emerged to support the notion that returning fighters from Syria pose a great threat to the United States.

In the United States, there has only been one case of a fighter returning from Syria and allegedly plotting an attack. Abdirahman Sheik Mohamud, 22, of Columbus, Ohio, left for Syria in April 2014 and fought there before returning home around two months later. The government alleges that a cleric in Syria told Mohamud that he should return to the United States to conduct an act of terrorism and that he discussed some kind of plan (with an informant) to kill American soldiers at a military base in Texas. He has pleaded not guilty to a charge of providing material support to a terrorist group.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in March, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that about 40 individuals had returned from Syria. “We have since found they went for humanitarian purposes or some other reason that don’t relate to plotting,” he said.

We identified 23 Americans who actually reached Syria, 46 individuals who attempted or plotted to travel to Syria but were unsuccessful in doing so, and 14 who provided support to others fighting or seeking to fight in Syria.

Instead of being a launch pad for attacks at home, Syria turned out to be a graveyard for the few Americans who made it to the war zone.

 Of the 23 individuals who reached Syria, nine died there. For instance, Floridian Moner Abu Salha, died conducting a suicide bombing in northern Syria last year, and Douglas McAuthur McCain was killed fighting for ISIS

Nine of the Americans who reached Syria remain at large, while five American fighters who returned to the United States from Syria were taken into custody.

Many fighters from countries other than the United States have traveled to fight in Syria and could pose a potential threat to the United States. So far we have not seen a case of a foreign fighter from another country traveling to the United States to conduct an attack. However, it is not beyond the realm of possibility.

The large number of foreign fighters traveling to fight in Syria from other countries magnifies the potential threat of an infiltration attack, especially given the high numbers of foreign fighters from countries that enjoy the Visa Waiver Program with the United States, such as Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Tracking the many foreign fighters from Western countries who have gone to Syria and who have returned to the West poses a greater challenge, given their larger numbers, than tracking the handful of returning American fighters.

With the large numbers of Europeans traveling to fight in Syria, nations such as France and Germany are reporting significant strain on their ability to monitor returnees effectively.

In December, German’s federal prosecutor general, Harald Range, said of the number of terrorism cases being prosecuted in his country, “We are at the limits of our capacity,” adding that new cases kept emerging. “What worries me is the speed with which people are radicalizing, or being radicalized. We are facing a phenomenon which needs a broad strategy of prevention.”

Each French individual placed under surveillance requires 25 agents to maintain round-the-clock monitoring, and the strain on resources produced by ever increasing numbers of militants who need to be monitored was in part behind the failure to maintain surveillance of the Kouachi brothers, who conducted the attack on the Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris this year.

It would take many thousands of agents to monitor each of the more than a 1,000 Frenchmen reportedly involved in the Syrian war, and France simply doesn’t have that kind of manpower.

The fact that a French prosecutor says that one of the Paris attackers was a French national who was known to police is an indicator of how difficult tracking all of these militants has proven to be.

Commentary by Eric Bradner, CNN

In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Graham said he hopes France will invoke a NATO provision that would draw its allies into a war against ISIS.

U.S. officials say no known threat to homeland in wake of Paris attacks

“They should. The world should be at war with ISIL,” the South Carolina senator said.

“I’m trying to protect America from another 9/11, and without American boots on the ground in Syria and Iraq, we’re gonna get hit here at home,” Graham said. “And if you don’t understand that, you’re not ready to be commander-in-chief in my view.”

Graham warned that Friday’s attacks in Paris will be repeated — and on a larger scale — within the United States unless ISIS is destroyed.

“There is a 9/11 coming, and it is coming from Syria if we don’t disrupt their operation inside of Syria,” he said.

He called for 10,000 American troops on the ground in Iraq as part of a regional military force.

Syria: Obama authorizes boots on ground to fight ISIS

“If we don’t do these things soon, what you’ve seen in Paris is coming to America,” Graham said.

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of “Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden — From 9/11 to Abbottabad.” Courtney Schuster is a program associate at New America, where David Sterman is a senior program associate.

 Could the Paris attacks by Isis be the beginning of the 3rd World War?

Ever since the U.S. military campaign against ISIS began in 2014, Pentagon officials have said the U.S. has time on its side. Rather than an invasion, officials have opted for methodical and incremental moves against the threat. “We must maintain strategic patience going forward,” Army General Lloyd Austin, overseeing the anti-ISIS campaign as the chief of U.S. Central Command, said last fall. “The campaign to destroy [ISIS] will take time.”But the recent spate of suspected terrorist attacks, including a coordinated assault on Paris Friday and the destruction of a Russian airliner over Egypt, now threaten to fray that strategy, as western nations realize that the distant war can cause significant damage at home. Future attacks—especially if they happen on U.S. soil—may find that the U.S. public has run out of patience, strategic or otherwise.The Paris attacks represent “an assault on our common human dignity,” Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said late Friday. “As NATO allies, as leaders of the counter-[ISIS] coalition, as nations working shoulder to shoulder from West Africa to the Indian Ocean, the United States and France will only strengthen our resolve.”But mere resolve, in the face of domestic slaughter, is untenable. The key for leaders U.S., France, Russia and other states targeted by the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria, isn’t to be stampeded into action, but to assess accurately the threat it poses and then develop a strategy to deal with it. Then they must convince their populations to support the plan.After 3,000 died on September 11, 2001, an uneasy lull began. Terrorist attacks from Sunni radicals still occurred, but on a smaller scale and usually overseas, far from major Western targets. That tense hiatus now seems to be ending, following the destruction of Russian airliner over Egypt two weeks ago that killed 224, and Friday night’s slaughter in Paris that killed more than 125.No one should under-estimate the difficulty in curbing attacks by so-called “lone wolves.” But the attacks on the airliner over the Sinai and in Paris were conducted by packs, not lone wolves. And they are succored by a fledgling self-declared caliphate that inspires them.A report from Paris Saturday morning that one of the dead assailants had a Syrian passport only makes it more clear that such rampages are unlikely to end any time soon. French President Francois Holande declared Saturday that the Islamic State was responsible. “It is an act of war that was prepared, organized and planned from abroad, with complicity from the inside, which the investigation will help establish,” he said. The U.S. has long sought to fight terror on the cheap. Initial projections of how long the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would take, and how costly they would be in both blood and treasure, fell woefully short. A scant 1% of Americans donned their nation’s uniforms to fight, and—because the political class lacked the guts to do otherwise—this handful was recycled back to war repeatedly, risking their physical and mental health. The other 99% were encouraged to keep shopping, as the nation’s politicians saddled their children and grandchildren with much of the estimated $4 trillion cost of the wars.Congress, meanwhile, has simply abdicated its role in the fight, allowing Obama to wage an anti-ISIS campaign under a congressional authorization approved shortly after the 9/11 attacks. That way, lawmakers can sit on the sidelines and carp when things go wrong, as t

He refhey always do in a military campaign. But that attitude also sanctions a hands-off approach among U.S. citizens: if Congress has no skin in the game, why should the American public?Congress will now face new pressure to act like the Founding Fathers intended under Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, and debate the wisdom of declaring war on the Islamic State. If nothing else, the recent attacks put the issue of Western strategy front and center.Strategic patience can continue, even in the face of more terrorist attacks, but only with consent of the Western populations who now find themselves under attack.uses to say “Islamic terrorism,” as if that would offend the peaceful Muslims who make up the vast bulk of victims. He rejects the word “war,” even as jihadists carry out bloodthirsty attacks against Americans and innocent peoples around the world.

He shuns the mantle of global leadership that comes with the Oval Office, with an aide advancing the preposterous concept that Obama is “leading from behind.” He snubs important partners like Egypt, showers concessions on the apocalyptic mullahs of Iran, and called the Islamic State the “jayvee team” even as it was beginning to create a caliphate.Having long ago identified American power as a problem, he continues to slash the military as the enemy expands its reach. In a globalized era, the Obama doctrine smacks of cowardly retreat and fanciful isolation.In an accident of timing that captures his cluelessness, the president actually declared on Friday morning that Islamic State had been “contained,” practically boasting in a TV interview that, “They have not gained ground in Iraq and in Syria.”What gall. What folly.Paris is the final straw. Obama’s exemption from reality has expired. He must either commit to leading the free world to victory, or step aside so someone else can.There is no more time to avoid the truth of war. America must organize the combined forces of the civilized world before Islamic State makes good on its vow to “taste” more American blood.If Obama cannot rise to the challenge of leadership in this historic crisis, then, for the good of humanity, he should resign.As a top intelligence adviser told me yesterday, “What they did in Paris means they are coming here.”In fact, they already are here. Law-enforcement officials say the FBI has as many as 1,000 investigations open into Islamic State sympathizers inside the US.Is America ready to stop multiple assault teams of suicide bombers? Is New York ready? Or Chicago, Los Angeles or Washington, DC?Because Paris was a grand success to the terrorists, the propaganda value acts as an incentive for attacks on other western cities. While sparing no effort to stop them here, we must simultaneously destroy them in their foreign bases.World War III began when Osama bin Laden declared war on the United States, though we did not grasp the significance until 9/11. The collapse of the Twin Towers, a smoking hole in the Pentagon and a downed jetliner in Pennsylvania revealed the price of our inaction.The single greatest attack ever against America galvanized the nation and defined a new generation of policy makers and warriors.Yet Obama always remained curiously cool about the whole endeavor, denouncing the invasion of Iraq as dumb while holding up Afghanistan as a necessary war. Once he got to the White House, though, he showed no conviction about Afghanistan either, surging troops only to demand that they return home quickly.The pattern has never changed, and his relationship with a rotating cast of military leaders remains rocky. Robert Gates, secretary of defense under both President Bush and Obama, said in his memoir that Obama’s distrust of the military was destructive of the very mission he had given the troops.People in France light candles at a memorial for the victims of the Paris terror attacks.Photo: APAfter a heated 2011 meeting on Afghanistan, Gates concluded that Obama “doesn’t believe in his own strategy, and doesn’t consider the war to be his. For him, it’s all about getting out.”Another former military leader, Gen. Jack Keane, notes that Obama never once agreed to the full request of his commanders. If they ask for 10,000 troops, Obama agrees to 5,000, 3,000 or none.The raid that got bin Laden marked the high point of Obama’s commitment. He turned that achievement into political gold in 2012 and declared the “tide of war is receding” to justify his decision to withdraw from the field of battle.It was a convenient figment of self-interest, as if his wish would make it true. Instead, the strategic dominos fell quickly as war metastasized. The hard-won gains in Iraq were reversed, Syria descended into hell and Islamic State was born in the vacuum.Its ruthlessness and success in capturing territory enabled it to supplant al Qaeda as the most dangerous terrorist network. It has become the proverbial “strong horse,” with each terrifying attack bringing more recruits and more financing.In the last two weeks, it shot down a commercial Russian airliner over Egypt and carried out bombings in Beirut. And then came Paris.Its ability to inflict unprecedented casualties in such far-flung locations mark a growing strength and sophistication. The terrorists smell weakness and have increased the pace of their aggressive expansion. Their aim of global conquest must be taken seriously.Photo: Getty ImagesFrench President Francois Hollande understands the meaning of Friday’s slaughter. He called it an “act of war” and vowed that “France will not show any pity” against those who carried out the barbaric acts. World leaders quickly expressed their condolences and condemnation.Yet it remains doubtful if our side is truly committed to winning. The determination and unity the free world showed after 9/11 faded as casualties, mistakes and politics eroded the mission.So we are back to square one again, facing a stronger and more emboldened enemy. The time has run out for half measures and kicking the can down the road. The enemy must be destroyed on the battlefield before there can be any hope of peace.If Obama cannot rise to the challenge of leadership in this historic crisis, then, for the good of humanity, he should resign. Those are the only options and it is his duty to decide.

Update on the massacre in Paris – Saturday, November 15

Update on the Massacre in Paris - Saturday, November 15, 2015